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Our playbook for investing in commodities has historically been to identify high-quality assets that sit at attractive points on their commodity cost curve, and to establish a position when the balance sheet is solid and the commodity price has cost curve support (i.e. some producers are losing money at spot pricing).
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I learned a valuable lesson in July 2022, the last year the S&P/ASX 200 index posted a negative return, that starting points matter. I had gone on leave to have my second child in December 2021 as markets were making all-time highs, the cash rate was on the floor (and the RBA was promising to keep it there for years) and a raft of IPOs were hitting the ASX.