Most people’s experience of artificial intelligence has been the chatbot: ask a question, get an answer. That use is still growing. What is changing—and what matters for Contrarius’ Funds—is the next layer of demand.
Most people’s experience of artificial intelligence has been the chatbot: ask a question, get an answer. That use is still growing. What is changing—and what matters for Contrarius’ Funds—is the next layer of demand.
Cryptocurrencies must surely be the most polarising asset class in the modern financial era. On the one hand, they promise decentralised finance, immutable digital money, and permissionless innovation.
This time of the year is always interesting due to the preponderance of investment outlooks that are penned in early-to-mid December. These publications wax lyrical on a variety of topics du jour but are often most useful in informing investors exactly where consensus expectations and biases lie across various asset classes. These publications are also slowly coming to grips with the new world order in geopolitics and how a seemingly structured 6-month view of the world can get blasted to smithereens in a few hours.
we are in the midst of profound disruption. This is likely to be beyond a typical generational disruption that happens every 20-30 years. This technological singularity is expected to cause dramatic and irreversible changes to human civilization, far beyond typical generational disruptions such as electrification, the internet, or even current generative AI.
For a long time, stability was something many people barely thought about.
If you stayed employed, avoided major mistakes and made reasonably sensible decisions, the system tended to reward you. Careers progressed in a fairly linear way. Property values rose over time. Superannuation ticked along quietly in the background. There were cycles, of course, but they felt familiar and manageable.
For most of financial history, oil has been the beating heart of the global economy as it has fuelled transport, industry, and economic growth. But in early 2026, oil may well hold a less impressive title: the cheapest major commodity in the world. It’s currently trading at a price that defies historical patterns and conventional market wisdom.
The most expensive investment mistakes rarely stem from ignorance. They tend to arise from behavioural biases, poorly governed decision-making, and incentives that distort investors’ judgement over time. History shows that even professional investors, armed with the best data, experience, and market access, repeatedly make the same predictable errors.
Our playbook for investing in commodities has historically been to identify high-quality assets that sit at attractive points on their commodity cost curve, and to establish a position when the balance sheet is solid and the commodity price has cost curve support (i.e. some producers are losing money at spot pricing).
Are you tired of hearing about the Magnificent Seven being the only investment game in town? That would be understandable since it’s the narrative that’s dominated global equity markets for many years now. It’s been the same outside of the U.S., including here in Australia. The Magnificent Seven have been driving the global equity markets to new highs, and international participation has been rising accordingly.
Global Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are almost always sold on the same two hooks. The first is international diversification—the very sensible idea that you shouldn't have all your eggs in an Australian basket.
At the recent UBS Global Real Estate Conference in London, a key investing lesson was subtly but forcefully reiterated: stocks can stay mispriced for longer than you might expect.
As the new year begins, the global economy is on a surprisingly resilient track, although the margin for policy error by governments and central bankers is narrow. With global inflation sticky but moderating and high developed-market government debt, central banks face an ever-finer line in their efforts to cut rates without reigniting inflation or destabilising bond markets.