Markets have never lacked reasons to worry. There’s generally a long list of macro risks and challenges that need to be navigated. Yet the data on which investors succeed tells a clear story: cautious optimism has consistently outperformed pessimism.
Global investment sentiment gauges have rarely been this bullish, and history says that’s precisely when investors should pay closer attention.
Here’s what the data shows and what it means.
Most market commentaries explain major price moves after the fact with tidy causes that sound obvious only in hindsight. In my opinion, that’s not an intellectually honest approach in the current environment.
Global investment sentiment gauges have rarely been this bullish, and history says that’s precisely when investors should pay closer attention.
Here’s what the data shows and what it means.
Most market commentaries explain major price moves after the fact with tidy causes that sound obvious only in hindsight. In my opinion, that’s not an intellectually honest approach in the current environment.
Australia’s GDP rose 0.3% in the March quarter and 2.5% over the year. While that’s not recessionary, it’s hardly exuberant and was once again negative in per capita terms. The main headwinds are subdued household and government consumption, while adverse weather hampered mining production and exports. On a more positive note, there’s been a lift in business investment linked to data centre machinery and equipment.
The Federal Reserve has a new chairman in position. Kevin Warsh recently chaired his first meeting and the message was clear: global markets need to get used to less hand-holding looking forward.
The SpaceX IPO may go down as one of the defining market events of the decade. Not simply because of its size, or its role in catapulting Elon Musk into the world’s first trillionaire. And not even because it’s trading at a somewhat shocking 2026 EV/EBITDA ratio of 222x.
The number of investors proclaiming they’ve made millions from AI infrastructure stocks is on the rise. That’s a dubious data point that’s surely synonymous with taxi drivers sharing the same hot stock picks near the peak of the market.
Australian consumers are feeling mighty gloomy right now. It’s easy to understand why. The war in Iran, the sharp rise in fuel prices and the proposed removal of the capital gains tax discount has Australian households unusually worried about the future.
Read our latest market commentary, The Bigger Picture, which includes some timely investment lessons from Simon Turner's Camino experience in Portugal and Spain.
April confirmed what markets had begun to suspect: the global macro backdrop has changed. Higher geopolitical risk is now structurally entrenched. Markets have quickly adjusted to this unfortunate new reality across all asset classes. Geopolitical risk has reasserted itself as a primary driver of energy prices, inflation expectations, and capital flows. Investors still anchored to the old world of low inflation, cheap money, and frictionless globalisation risk being structurally mispositioned.
By now, most of us have realised that the US-Israel-Iran war will have longer-term consequences beyond recent volatility. It’s accelerating a structural shift in global markets defined by tighter energy supply, more persistent inflation, and the fragmentation of trade and capital flows.
Buckle up. Markets are undergoing a structural shift. The era of easy gains driven by liquidity and exposure to US big tech appears to be fading. In its place is emerging a more selective environment defined by rising geopolitical risk, elevated inflationary pressures, and widening dispersion between companies, sectors, and asset classes.
2026 is emerging as a year when it pays to understand what’s happening beneath the surface of markets. Whilst global equity markets have been weaker, there have been a number of consequential sectoral shifts behind the index headlines, some of which have insulated savvy investors from the broader weakness. Moreover, some of these shifts may be here to stay, determining the market outlook for the full year and beyond.
Emerging markets (EMs) entered 2026 with strong structural momentum behind them, but the escalation of conflict in Iran has introduced a new layer of geopolitical risk that’s reshaping capital flows, commodity dynamics, and currency regimes.
Investors have long watched oil prices as a gauge of global inflation, corporate profitability, geopolitical risk, and consumer spending. When it moves sharply in one direction, it’s arguably one of the most heeded signals in the market. When it spikes, the news headlines often predict equity market turmoil. When it collapses, they are more focused on the likelihood of a global recession.