Corporate bonds are once again popular with Australian and global investors alike. With markets expecting the RBA and the Fed to start cutting rates in the coming months, investors have been increasing their corporate bond exposure to lock in the highest yields available in recent years. We investigate whether or not this is a wise strategy below.
You may have heard the joke about central bankers … how many central bankers does it take to change a light bulb? None. If the light bulb needed changing the market would have done it already. It won’t surprise you to hear not many central bankers find this joke funny. But what if the light bulb that needed changing was persistent inflation, and what if the market believes it can relax as the RBA has already changed that light bulb?
Despite the overall bullish trend in equities, there's been a notable surge in cash being held by money market funds with an all-time high in those assets recently reached.
In fact, total assets in US money market funds, which invest in cash-like securities such as short-term Treasury bills, grew to $US6.02 trillion last month, with both retail and institutional funds increasing their allocations due to the higher short-term rates on offer.
Most investors currently lack exposure to emerging markets after a generally challenging decade for the asset class prior to 2023. However, over the past year the emerging markets narrative has improved for some structurally-attractive emerging market countries where stock market momentum continues to build.
The fastest rate rising cycle in history was always going to test the commercial property fund sector. With typical loan to value ratios of 40-70%, it’s an asset class which is at the mercy of the RBA’s cash rate decisions. As such, investors tend to be bullish on commercial property funds when rates are falling, but rising rates generally spell bearish sentiment.
It’s been a torrid couple of years for ASX smaller companies with most investors turning their backs on the asset class like the plague. The extent of their recent disfavour has been hard to fathom given the positive trend in equities since the pandemic.
This raises the question: is now the right time to revisit small and micro caps whilst others remain fearful? To answer that, we’ll need to delve into the reasons for the recent underperformance for a steer as to what’s coming next…
In recent years, the private equity sector has increasingly cast its fund raising net to include individual investors who are aiming to generate strong risk-adjusted returns over the long term. With more investors considering the private equity opportunities on offer, it’s worthwhile delving into this opaque sector’s unique benefits and challenges.
After three straight months of global equity markets rallying driven by expectations that the Fed has paused its rate raising cycle, volatility is currently unusually and arguably unsustainably low. The historical data suggests it’s unlikely this situation will continue for much longer. In short, it’s probably the right time to prepare for volatility to return in the coming weeks or months.
Last year was another thematic-driven year with thematic ETFs gaining popularity among Australian investors. According to the 2023 ASX Investor Study, the proportion of Australian investors using ETFs has grown from 15% to 20% over the past three years.
As a new year kicks off, investors face an investment landscape which doesn’t resemble many past periods. After the fastest interest rate rising cycle in history, the impacts of higher interest rates are still filtering through whilst two wars continue to rage, US Government debt levels reach unprecedented levels, and global growth is expected to run at well below trend.
It’s been a challenging year for most investors with sharply higher interest rates leading to significant underperformance in asset classes which used to be regarded as defensive such as government bonds. The rules of the game have been turned on their head.
The recent Australian Consumer Sentiment Snapshot reveals Aussie consumers have one particular economic factor front of mind… inflation.
The inflation monster is impacting upon consumers’ disposable incomes, and more importantly it’s causing havoc in consumers’ minds where it’s doing most of its insidious work. It’s this growing awareness and fear of inflation which suggests we may be on track for inflation to trend higher than markets (and central bankers) currently believe. If that is indeed the case, the investment implications are significant…
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