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Sequencing Risk: Why Average Returns Don’t Matter

Investors are generally taught to focus on average returns as a gauge of investment success. This makes intuitive sense to most. Over the long run, developed market equities have delivered average returns of around 10% p.a. That solid result has reinforced the advice: stay invested, reinvest your dividends and compounding will do the heavy lifting for you.

9 Mar 2026
 · 6 MIN READ

The Water Is Slowly Warming: Systemic Risks Investors Are Underpricing

Most investors tend to think of systemic risk as something that arrives with a bang, like a banking crisis, a pandemic, or a war. Increasingly, the more realistic systemic dangers are slower to gauge and harder to price. They are an ominous set of interconnected and interacting stresses that have the potential to degrade the very conditions required for markets to compound at all.

4 Mar 2026
 · 8 MIN READ

The Bigger Picture: March 2026

We’re only two months into 2026 and investors have already experienced what feels like a year’s worth of change. It’s this accelerating pace of change that’s already the dominant issue of the year, as markets are being challenged to price in a more uncertain future.

2 Mar 2026
 · 5 MIN READ

The AI Inflection Point: What It Means for Investors

How many times have you heard people talk down AI’s role in the future of humanity? We’ve all heard the feedback: ‘It’s unreliable’, ‘It will never replace humans for anything but low-value jobs,’ and ‘It’s all a flash in the pan.’ But what if these excuses are simply defensive responses because the truth is too earth-shattering to accept: the productivity promise of AI is already real.

1 Mar 2026
 · 8 MIN READ

The Misunderstood Miner

Open a financial news app and you’ll be greeted with headlines of quarterly earnings misses, monthly economic data prints, and excitement about a 10-week trading update, with share prices swinging around in response.

24 Feb 2026
 · 8 MIN READ

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