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How many central bankers does it take to change a light bulb?

You may have heard the joke about central bankers … how many central bankers does it take to change a light bulb? None. If the light bulb needed changing the market would have done it already. It won’t surprise you to hear not many central bankers find this joke funny. But what if the light bulb that needed changing was persistent inflation, and what if the market believes it can relax as the RBA has already changed that light bulb?

13 Mar 2024
 · 7 MIN READ

Will the Fed throw kerosene onto the fire?

With global equity markets celebrating the prospect of impending rate cuts by the Fed, some investors have been wrong-footed by the extent of the recent enthusiasm, particularly in US tech stocks. If you’re underinvested and are considering joining the equity party in earnest, it’s worthwhile digging into the market’s Fed fund rate expectations for an understanding of whether market expectations are on point, or not. This situation may well dictate global and Australian equity market performance in the coming months.

7 Mar 2024
 · 5 MIN READ

Cash rules the roost as rates remain high

Despite the overall bullish trend in equities, there's been a notable surge in cash being held by money market funds with an all-time high in those assets recently reached. In fact, total assets in US money market funds, which invest in cash-like securities such as short-term Treasury bills, grew to $US6.02 trillion last month, with both retail and institutional funds increasing their allocations due to the higher short-term rates on offer.

5 Mar 2024
 · 5 MIN READ

Don’t ignore the liquidity feedback loop

With the US economy and stock market continuing to drive global markets, Aussie investors increasingly need to understand what’s driving American fund flows. Spoiler alert: it’s not just corporate earnings. There are liquidity drivers at play in the US that are creating remarkably strong feedback loops with stock valuations and the broader economy. Understanding how these liquidity feedback loops work may well provide clues as to what’s coming next for global equity markets, including the ASX…

22 Feb 2024
 · 5 MIN READ

Prepare for volatility

After three straight months of global equity markets rallying driven by expectations that the Fed has paused its rate raising cycle, volatility is currently unusually and arguably unsustainably low. The historical data suggests it’s unlikely this situation will continue for much longer. In short, it’s probably the right time to prepare for volatility to return in the coming weeks or months.

1 Feb 2024
 · 5 MIN READ

What investors need to know about the booming private debt world

You may have noticed you’re hearing more about private debt (also known as private credit) as an asset class these days. You’re not imagining it. Private debt is booming as an asset class. Preqin estimates the sector’s assets under management will grow from US$1.5 trillion in 2022 to US$2.8 trillion by 2028, reflecting growing awareness of the sector’s solid income generation credentials.

24 Jan 2024
 · 6 MIN READ

Positioning, positioning, positioning: the key to 2024 outperformance

As a new year kicks off, investors face an investment landscape which doesn’t resemble many past periods. After the fastest interest rate rising cycle in history, the impacts of higher interest rates are still filtering through whilst two wars continue to rage, US Government debt levels reach unprecedented levels, and global growth is expected to run at well below trend.

11 Jan 2024
 · 6 MIN READ

The new year portfolio test all investors should take

Investing is a humbling business. And one of the most humbling aspects of investing is facing up to the results of your trading activities at the end of each year. As the new year begins, now is the ideal time to assess the impact you had on your portfolio in 2023. Warning: you may be surprised by the results…

8 Jan 2024
 · 5 MIN READ

Make more money by losing less money

Risk is a complex subject. Whilst there are many official definitions, most successful investors tend to define risk as what you don’t see coming—the unknown unknowns. Understanding risk in these terms may be the key to recognising the emergence of major risks faster, and hence avoiding the more significant financial pain that investment mistakes tend to lead to. Losing less on your mistakes may well be the key to improving your investment returns…

8 Dec 2023
 · 8 MIN READ