The Anthropic IPO: What the Largest Listing in History Means for Global Portfolios

Within a month or so, what may be the largest listing in stock market history is expected to list on the Nasdaq. Anthropic, the company behind the Claude family of AI models, is heading for public markets at a valuation up to US$2 trillion.

If you own a global equity ETF or an international fund, this probably affects you whether or not you buy a single Anthropic share.

This event will put a public, daily price on the AI trade that has driven most of the world’s equity returns for three years, just as investors have begun asking whether that trade has run ahead of itself.

Key Takeaways

• Anthropic, the company behind the Claude family of AI models, is expected to list on the Nasdaq at a valuation of up to US$2 trillion, in what may be the largest listing in stock market history.
• It filed a confidential prospectus with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on 1 June 2026, led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, ahead of a listing expected in late October or early November 2026.
• Annualised revenue went from US$9 billion at the end of 2025 to more than US$65 billion by August 2026. Second-quarter revenue was US$11.5 billion, up fourteenfold.
• There will be no automatic index inclusion. S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed in June 2026 that it would keep its twelve-month trading history and profitability requirements rather than fast-track the AI giants.
• Most global investors already own Anthropic indirectly. Alphabet holds 14% and Amazon’s stake is estimated at 21%, and both flow through those companies’ reported earnings.
• A raise of US$60 billion or more must be funded by selling something else, which makes rotation out of large-cap technology likelier than a smooth broadening.
• SpaceX’s 2026 listing showed that markets are now pricing AI companies on cash flow rather than revenue growth.
  

What is Anthropic?

Founded in 2021 by former OpenAI researchers, Anthropic sells access to Claude mostly to businesses rather than consumers, with 80% of its revenue coming from enterprise and developer customers.

Source: Granite Shares ETFs

The company’s extraordinary growth rates explain the noise around the company’s listing.

Annualised revenue was US$9 billion at the end of 2025.

By May 2026, it had reached US$47 billion.

In August, Bloomberg reported it had passed US$65 billion, more than seven times its pace a year earlier.

Source: Granite Shares ETFs

The growth has continued this year. Second-quarter revenue was US$11.5 billion, up fourteenfold.

Source: Granite Shares ETFs

Private valuations have followed the trajectory of the company’s revenues.

A US$30 billion Series G in February valued the company at US$380 billion, then a US$65 billion Series H in May took it to US$965 billion.

With a view to an IPO, Anthropic filed a confidential prospectus with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on 1 June 2026, led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan.

CNBC reports that institutions are being sounded out at a valuation near US$2 trillion, ahead of a listing in late October or early November.

What Are the Potential Knock-On Effects of the Anthropic IPO?

There are a couple of knock-on effects worth being aware of prior to Anthropic’s IPO:

1.    There will be no automatic index inclusion

A common assumption is that a trillion-dollar-plus listing like this gets swept straight into the indices, forcing every passive fund to buy it.

Not in this case.

S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed in June that it would keep its twelve-month trading history and profitability requirements rather than fast-track the AI giants such as Anthropic.

That’s a missed opportunity for those looking for short-term gains. Bloomberg Intelligence estimated that immediate inclusion would have triggered close to US$9 billion of forced passive buying.

That bid is effectively deferred, rather than cancelled, although it may be worth less than most assume. Aswath Damodaran has shown that index additions often underperform in the year following their listings.

2.    The money has to come from somewhere

Money movements are the most significant impact to be ready for.

A fund raise of US$60 billion or more must be funded by selling something else, and the obvious source is the existing large-cap technology sector.

The S&P 500 was worth US$67.2 trillion at the end of June, with the ten largest companies comprising 36.5% of it.

By way of comparison, the combined private valuations of the AI pipeline including Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks and Stripe equate to 3.2% of the index.

That’s large enough to dilute the Magnificent Seven rather than simply add to it. It may arrive in the form of rotation and volatility rather than a smooth broadening.

Do You Already Own a Slice of Anthropic?

If you own a global fund or ETF owning one or both of Alphabet and Amazon, which are large weightings in most funds, you already own a stake in Anthropic.

Court filings confirm that Alphabet holds about 14% of Anthropic, capped at 15%, with no board seats or voting rights. Amazon’s position, built from more than US$8 billion invested, is estimated at 21%.

Source: Granite Shares ETFs

Those stakes already flow through the companies’ reported earnings.

For example, Amazon booked US$16.8 billion of pre-tax gains on Anthropic in the first quarter of 2026, then US$53.4 billion of revaluation income in the second.

What Did the SpaceX IPO Teach Us?

SpaceX is a useful comparable (read: cautionary tale).

It priced at US$135 on 12 June 2026 and closed its first day near US$161, briefly valuing the company at more than US$2 trillion.

Then came its first result as a public company.

Revenue beat at US$7.8 billion against US$6.9 billion expected, up 92%, and the stock still fell 8% after hours because its capex had soared.

By early August, it traded at US$125, below its issue price.

The lesson was that markets are now pricing AI companies on cash flow rather than revenue growth.

That’s a demanding backdrop for a high-growth company to list into.

What Risks Reside Outside the Prospectus?

Two risks stand out ahead of the Anthropic listing.

The first is politics.

In February 2026, the Pentagon designated Anthropic a supply chain risk after a dispute over restrictions the company placed on Claude’s military use, and the President ordered federal agencies to stop using its technology. Anthropic sued, and in August a US District Judge ruled the designation unlawful. The Pentagon’s position is that a vendor should not dictate how government uses a capability it has bought.

The issue is ongoing, and shows that political risk is now a live equity risk for frontier AI.

The second is concentration.

ChatGPT had a 50% market share in March 2026, Gemini had 22% and Claude had 10%, so enterprise strength sits alongside a modest consumer footprint.

It’s also worth mentioning that Anthropic has committed to spend more than US$100 billion with Amazon on chips and cloud services, tying a major shareholder, supplier and reseller into its story.

How Can Australian Investors Get Access?

Here are three ETF strategies for Australian investors to potentially benefit from Anthropic’s IPO, each with a trade-off:

1.    Own the theme through broad tech ETFs

Broad US tech exposure such as the Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF provides solid exposure to Alphabet and Amazon, although these indices are reasonably concentrated on the largest companies, particularly the Magnificent Seven.

2.    Buy the supply chain rather than the model

Like the AI theme but prefer to buy the picks and shovels needed for the AI infrastructure rollout?

The Global X Semiconductor ETF and Global X AI Infrastructure ETF track the capex cycle, rather than picking a particular AI model as the long-term winner.

This is a clear strength while AI spending accelerates, although it could become a weakness when AI capex eventually peaks.

3.    Await more data

Let’s be honest: given it’s yet to list, we don’t know nearly as much about Anthropic as we know about the rest of the big tech sector.

Lock-up expiries, the first couple of quarterly results and the eventual index review are events that will improve the market’s understanding of the opportunity.

Nothing obliges you to ensure you’re exposed to Anthropic in week one, although that means not being exposed to the potential upside.

Big IPO, Big Takeaways

The Anthropic listing is best understood as a repricing event for a company you probably already own, a company whose revenue growth is extraordinary.

Before the prospectus lands, it’s worth being aware that there will be no automatic passive bid, and the capital it absorbs must be sold from somewhere, which makes rotation likelier than a uniform lift. And SpaceX has shown that the markets are now judging these companies on quarterly cash generation.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the Anthropic IPO?

Anthropic filed a confidential prospectus with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on 1 June 2026, led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan. CNBC reports a listing on the Nasdaq is likely in late October or early November 2026.

What valuation is Anthropic seeking?

Institutions are being sounded out at a valuation near US$2 trillion. Anthropic’s last private valuation was US$965 billion, set by a US$65 billion Series H in May 2026, after a US$30 billion Series G in February 2026 valued it at US$380 billion.

How much revenue does Anthropic make?

Annualised revenue was US$9 billion at the end of 2025, reached US$47 billion by May 2026 and passed US$65 billion in August 2026, more than seven times its pace a year earlier. Second-quarter 2026 revenue was more than US$11.5 billion, up fourteenfold on US$787 million a year earlier.

Who owns Anthropic?

Court filings confirm Alphabet holds about 14% of Anthropic, capped at 15%, with no board seats or voting rights. Amazon’s position, built from more than US$8 billion invested, is estimated at 21%. Founders, employees and a broad institutional syndicate hold the remainder.

Will Anthropic be added to the S&P 500 when it lists?

Not immediately. S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed in June 2026 that it would keep its twelve-month trading history and profitability requirements rather than fast-track the AI giants. Bloomberg Intelligence estimated immediate inclusion would have triggered close to US$9 billion of forced passive buying, so that bid is deferred rather than cancelled.

How can Australian investors get exposure to Anthropic?

There is no direct ASX-listed exposure before the IPO. Australian investors already hold an indirect stake through global funds and ETFs that own Alphabet and Amazon. Three ETF approaches are to own the theme through broad tech ETFs, to buy the semiconductor and AI infrastructure supply chain instead of the model, or to wait for lock-up expiries, the first quarterly results and the eventual index review.

What are the main risks of the Anthropic IPO?

Two stand out.

The first is political: in February 2026 the Pentagon designated Anthropic a supply chain risk after a dispute over restrictions on Claude’s military use, and a US District Judge ruled the designation unlawful in August 2026, with the issue ongoing.

The second is concentration: Claude held about 10% consumer market share in March 2026 against ChatGPT’s 50% and Gemini’s 22%, and Anthropic has committed to spend more than US$100 billion with Amazon, a major shareholder, supplier and reseller.

Funds Mentioned

Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ)

Invest in the Nasdaq 100 in a single trade

Retail Investor

Objective

Growth

Category

ETFs

Min. Investment

$1

Liquidity

Listed

Availability

Open for investment

Funding Stage

Listed

Structure

ETF

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Global X Semiconductor ETF (ASX: SEMI)

Invest in the world’s leading microchip makers and designers.

Retail Investor

Objective

Growth

Category

ETFs

Min. Investment

$500

Liquidity

Listed

Availability

Open for investment

Funding Stage

Listed

Structure

ETF

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Global X Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure ETF (ASX: AINF)

The Global X Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure ETF (AINF) offers targeted exposure to the physical and operational backbone enabling AI’s global expansion.

Retail Investor

Objective

Growth

Category

ETFs

Min. Investment

$500

Liquidity

Listed

Availability

Open for investment

Funding Stage

Listed

Structure

ETF

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Disclaimer: This article is prepared by Simon Turner. It is for educational purposes only. While all reasonable care has been taken by the author in the preparation of this information, the author and InvestmentMarkets (Aust) Pty. Ltd. as publisher take no responsibility for any actions taken based on information contained herein or for any errors or omissions within it. Interested parties should seek independent professional advice prior to acting on any information presented. Please note past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.