Elon Musk Says Money Won’t Matter By 2036. Investors Can Win Either Way

Musk made the claim in a July 2026 interview with The Economist editor-in-chief Zanny Minton Beddoes at Tesla’s Texas Gigafactory. There, the richest person in history argued that robots and AI will soon produce more than humans can possibly consume, rendering money irrelevant. 

It’s an easy claim to laugh at and a surprisingly hard one to confidently rebut. 

For most investors, the useful question is what Musk’s thinking implies about where returns will come from over the next decade, and how to build a portfolio that thrives whether he proves broadly right, mostly wrong, or the usual Musk mix of directionally correct and chronologically optimistic. 

Key Takeaways 

• Elon Musk argues money won’t matter by 2036, as robots and AI produce more than humans can consume and drive a wave of global deflation. 
  
  
• Musk’s predictions tend to be directionally correct but wildly optimistic on timing. 
  
  
• Analysts rate the chance of a moneyless economy by 2036 as extremely low, because cheap goods relocate scarcity rather than end it. 
  
  
• The defensible idea at the heart of Musk’s vision is that a rising share of output is likely to flow to the owners of capital rather than to the suppliers of labour. 
  
  
• Australian investors can win either way by owning productive assets, buying the bottlenecks and holding fixed income as a hedge against Musk being right. 
  

Musk’s Argument: Why Money Could Stop Mattering 

Musk’s logic is simple enough. Money is a claim on goods and services. If machines can supply those at close to zero marginal cost, money loses much of its purpose. 

His vision rests on AI driving a wave of global deflation, with output dramatically outrunning the money supply. ‘Deflation will be the issue, not inflation,’ he told The Economist. 

It also rests on his view that AI will exceed the sum of human intelligence in ‘roughly five years’, a forecast he has repeated elsewhere. 

He conceded the transition will be bumpy, suggesting governments ‘should just simply issue people checks’. That puts income transfers at the centre of the policy fight on the way to his vision becoming reality. 

A Track Record of Being Directionally Correct 

When most people hear a major prediction like this, their first question is: what is this person’s track record at predicting the future? 

Musk has tended to be directionally correct, but his timing has been questionable. 

In late 2025 he predicted that work would become optional, a shift he has put 10 to 20 years away. Meanwhile, Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot has faced repeated delays, and prediction market Polymarket at one point put the odds of Tesla releasing Optimus before 31 December 2026 at just 14.5%. 

Musk’s predictions tend to be directionally correct but wildly optimistic in terms of timing. 

Why Many People Think He Is Wrong This Time 

Technology analyst Rob Enderle, president of the Enderle Group, rates the probability of a moneyless economy by 2036 as ‘extremely low’, since abundance alone is unlikely to erode the value of money. A post-money economy would still need mechanisms to allocate scarce resources, distribute the gains and preserve individual choice. 

Beyond money, none exist at scale. 

The physical constraints on an expanding global economy are also tightening. A 2025 Bloomberg analysis found wholesale electricity near major US data centres costs as much as 267% more than it did five years earlier, as grid supply struggles to keep pace with AI workloads. 

Economists Tyler Cowen and Noah Smith argue that cheap manufactured goods don’t end scarcity. They just relocate it. A house with a particular view, a place at a good school, the attention of a person in demand: these remain scarce however cheap household goods become, and there has to be a mechanism to ration them. 

The Part Musk Is Probably Right About 

A more plausible 2036 outlook is one in which automation delivers large productivity gains and the argument shifts to who captures them. 

Stripping away the timeline, there’s a defensible idea at the heart of Musk’s prediction: a rising share of output is likely to flow to the owners of capital rather than to the suppliers of labour. 

The AI capex numbers help spell that out. 

UBS estimates the hyperscalers will spend US$4.1 trillion on AI infrastructure between 2026 and 2028, more than triple the US$1.3 trillion deployed over the previous six years. Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft are together committing about 102% of their cloud revenue to capital expenditure in 2026. 

What This Means for Australian Investors 

We see three important takeaways for investors. 

1. Own Productive Assets 

If a larger share of the gains accrues to owners, the prudent response is to own productive assets broadly and hold them for the long term. 

The complication for Australian investors is that the ASX remains concentrated in banks and miners, both relatively old-world industries. 

Global equity funds and global ETFs are the practical access route to the type of assets positioned to thrive in the new world economy. 

2. Buy the Bottlenecks 

The first phase of the AI trade was about computing power. 

The second is likely to be about the infrastructure an AI-dominated computing world needs to scale, particularly the end markets where capex spending is capacity-constrained. 

For example, an estimated 30% to 50% of planned 2026 AI data centre capacity is expected to slip to 2028 because of grid interconnection queues and construction bottlenecks. 

If capacity is limited by power, grid equipment, copper and cooling rather than by demand, the most interesting exposures are likely to sit around the unavoidable bottlenecks. 

Infrastructure and mining and resources funds and ETFs may sit closer to these long-term constraints than the average technology fund. 

3. Hedge Against Musk Being 100% Correct 

Let’s take Musk’s deflation prediction seriously for a moment. 

In a genuinely deflationary world, falling prices are likely to deliver strong real returns on cash and long-dated bonds while punishing leveraged real assets. 

That scenario is unlikely, which is exactly why insurance against it is so cheap right now. 

Fixed income can play a role in a diversified portfolio here, because it is likely to outperform if Musk is indeed correct. 

Three ways to position your portfolio, whether or not Musk is right 

Will Money Matter in 2036? The Bottom Line for Investors 

Musk’s prediction of a moneyless world works better as a thought experiment than as an accurate timetable. 

However, it points to two important consequences. 

The first is that owning assets is likely to be worth more than earning income. If automation keeps compressing the value of labour, the households that do well will be those holding claims on productive capital. 

That’s a compelling argument for starting early and contributing consistently to global and thematic ETFs and managed funds. 

The second is that the serious money is more likely to be made in the constraints than in the abundance. Energy, grid capacity, minerals and land are likely to remain scarce in every version of this story, including Musk’s own. 

These responses won’t make everyone a trillionaire, but they should help ensure your portfolio is still thriving in 2036, whether or not money is. 

Frequently Asked Questions 

What did Elon Musk say about money not mattering by 2036? 

In a July 2026 interview with The Economist at Tesla’s Texas Gigafactory, Elon Musk said ‘money won’t matter in 2036’ because robots and AI will produce more than humans can possibly consume. He expects AI to drive a wave of global deflation, with output dramatically outrunning the money supply. 

Will money really be worthless by 2036? 

Probably not. Technology analyst Rob Enderle, president of the Enderle Group, rates the probability of a moneyless economy by 2036 as ‘extremely low’, since abundance alone is unlikely to erode the value of money. A post-money economy would still need mechanisms to allocate scarce resources, distribute the gains and preserve individual choice. 

How accurate are Elon Musk’s predictions? 

Musk’s predictions tend to be directionally correct but wildly optimistic on timing. Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot has faced repeated delays, and prediction market Polymarket at one point put the odds of Tesla releasing Optimus before 31 December 2026 at just 14.5%. 

Why do economists think Musk is wrong about money? 

Economists Tyler Cowen and Noah Smith argue that cheap manufactured goods don’t end scarcity. They just relocate it. A house with a particular view, a place at a good school and the attention of a person in demand stay scarce however cheap household goods become, so there still has to be a mechanism to ration them. 

How much are the hyperscalers spending on AI infrastructure? 

UBS estimates the hyperscalers will spend US$4.1 trillion on AI infrastructure between 2026 and 2028, more than triple the US$1.3 trillion deployed over the previous six years. Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft are together committing about 102% of their cloud revenue to capital expenditure in 2026. 

What are the biggest bottlenecks to AI growth? 

Power, grid equipment, copper and cooling. A 2025 Bloomberg analysis found wholesale electricity near major US data centres costs as much as 267% more than five years earlier, and an estimated 30% to 50% of planned 2026 AI data centre capacity is expected to slip to 2028 because of grid interconnection queues and construction bottlenecks. 

How can Australian investors win whether or not Musk is right? 

Own productive assets broadly through global equity funds and global ETFs, buy the bottlenecks through infrastructure and mining and resources funds and ETFs, and hold fixed income as a hedge, because it is likely to outperform in a genuinely deflationary world. 

Disclaimer: This article is prepared by Simon Turner. It is for educational purposes only. While all reasonable care has been taken by the author in the preparation of this information, the author and InvestmentMarkets (Aust) Pty. Ltd. as publisher take no responsibility for any actions taken based on information contained herein or for any errors or omissions within it. Interested parties should seek independent professional advice prior to acting on any information presented. Please note past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.