Investment Themes Articles

Demographics are often at the heart of long term structural trends which affect a country’s economic and investment prospects. As such, being aware Australia’s demographic trends is an important part of the puzzle for all long term investors. We unpack the key demographic trends at play for investors below.

Better treating chronic disease has long been a core objective for the global medtech sector. Whilst steady progress in that direction has the name of the game for decades, the medtech sector appears to be at an inflection point with a secular improvement in treatment standards occurring in recent years. Less-young investors (I’m being polite) will remember a similar feeling in the global technology sector back in 1995, during the early stages of the tech boom.

In a surprising turn, the retail sector has defied bleak projections this earnings season with consumers demonstrating unexpected resilience. Discretionary giants like JB Hi-Fi, Myers, Wesfarmers, Temple & Webster, Nick Scali, and Cettire witnessed significant share price gains in February following strong first-half results, signalling a departure from bearish expectations for consumer-facing stocks. 

Electric vehicle stocks are experiencing a challenging start to the new year. Tesla's price cuts, higher-for-longer interest rates, and concerning economic data from China have dampened investor sentiment, casting a shadow over the once-bullish EV market.

Last year was another thematic-driven year with thematic ETFs gaining popularity among Australian investors. According to the 2023 ASX Investor Study, the proportion of Australian investors using ETFs has grown from 15% to 20% over the past three years.

PDD, the company behind the discount-retailing app Temu, recently surpassed Alibaba to become the most valuable e-commerce player in China. In November, the market capitalisation of this Nasdaq-listed start-up reached $US195.5 billion, surpassing Alibaba's $US182.6 billion. Over the past year, PDD Holdings' stock has surged by over 70% to $US148 (as shown below), driven by robust growth in the domestic market coupled with aggressive expansion overseas, led by the US.

The buy now, pay later sector finds itself at the centre of a perfect storm, propelled by robust Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales and the deferred implementation of BNPL laws.  Services such as Affirm, Afterpay-owner Block, and Klarna played a pivotal role, facilitating a substantial $US7.3 billion in consumer spending during the recent five-day sale event in the US. Cyber Monday alone witnessed a remarkable 43% increase in BNPL purchases compared to the previous year, according to Adobe data.

In recent years, shorting stocks has become a common strategy for professional and individual investors alike, so there’s a growing population of investors on the lookout for stocks they believe will fall in value.

There has been considerable hype lately surrounding the weight-loss drugs Ozempic/Wegovy which was initially designed for managing diabetes. From short sellers who believe Ozempic will disrupt competitors to endorsements by high-profile figures like Elon Musk and former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, these slimming drugs have transcended medical circles, shaking up entire industries from biotech and healthcare to fast food.

Recently, Microsoft and Google’s parent company Alphabet, two of the 'Magnificent Seven' tech companies, released their third-quarter earnings. The results were initially well received with both companies exceeding the market’s revenue and earnings expectations.

Headlines about Elon Musk’s idiosyncratic behaviour have become inextricably connected with the public’s perception of electric vehicles (EVs). Even after Tesla’s recent Q3 earnings call, some analysts were more concerned about Elon Musk’s off-topic remarks about everything ranging from the economy to weight loss than they were about the company’s numbers.

Strange times are afoot in financial markets with contradictory assumptions being priced into various asset classes. Here’s a great summary of the confusion investors must contend with at present… In the words of Charlie Munger, <i>‘If you're not a little confused about what's going on, you don't understand it.’