Patience is an Investment Decision

Investment decisions tend to attract attention when they involve buying something. Deciding against an investment is less conspicuous. A well-reasoned “no” rarely provides much material for the fund highlights. 

Yet deciding what not to own can be just as consequential as deciding what to buy, and so can deciding to leave a sound investment alone. In each case, the decision needs a reason beyond the desire to be doing something. 

This matters particularly in small caps, where a disappointing investment can become something more serious than a temporary setback. An unsustainable business model, an overextended balance sheet or poor capital allocation can produce a substantial and permanent loss. One sufficiently large mistake can undo the benefit of several sound decisions: a 50 per cent fall requires a 100 per cent gain simply to get back to where you started.  

The challenge is not to eliminate risk, as that would also eliminate much of the opportunity. Nor is it to reject every business with an uncertain outlook; there would be rather little left to consider. It is to distinguish between risks worth accepting at the price offered and those that are inadequately rewarded, too difficult to assess or capable of causing unacceptable damage to the portfolio. 

At FiveRock, we look for businesses with durable earnings, capable management and sound balance sheets, bought at reasonable valuations. Plenty of interesting small caps fall short on at least one of those counts, and in a portfolio of 30 to 70 holdings, every position has to earn its place. Maintaining our investing disciplines means being willing to let an opportunity pass, even when the story is appealing. 

That judgement will not always be right. Some opportunities declined will prosper, and some investments made will disappoint. The objective is not to avoid every mistake, but to maintain a process that improves the odds of taking risk where the prospective reward justifies it. 

Activity has to earn its keep 

The discipline to say no does not end once a portfolio is constructed. One reason patience is difficult for professional investors is the persistent sense that activity is part of the job - trading the portfolio, finding new ideas and continually making changes. 

There are always sound reasons to make changes: a better opportunity may emerge; a holding’s valuation may become excessive; its position size may become too large; or the investment case itself may weaken. 

However making changes because we feel we ought to be doing something is much harder to justify. We can all mistake activity for progress, particularly when patience produces so little to report. Where the underlying holdings remain fundamentally sound, valuations are reasonable and portfolio risks are appropriately balanced, the decision to sit tight can be every bit as deliberate as the decision to transact. 

But that judgement must remain open to new evidence. Patience should give a sound investment time to deliver, not grant a poor one an indefinite extension. 

Patience needs milestones, not just a longer calendar 

“Long term” is useful when it describes how a business is expected to create value. But it can be an easy excuse when it becomes the explanation for why an investment has not worked. 

We find it helpful to anchor patience to a detailed financial model, with key inputs that double as measurable milestones.  

For a resources company developing a new mine, that might mean commissioning dates, production volumes, ore grades, unit costs and recovery rates. For a software business, the relevant measures might be recurring revenue growth, customer retention, gross margins and how quickly the cost of acquiring each new customer is recovered. 

These are not deadlines for the share price to rise but rather checkpoints for assessing whether the original investment case and valuation analysis remain credible. A mine that is commissioning broadly on schedule and meeting production expectations may justify continued patience despite a flat share price. Repeated delays, lower-than-expected output or unexpected funding requirements call for a reassessment of the investment case, not simply a longer timetable. 

Time also matters to the return itself. A 20 per cent capital gain achieved in one year is a very different result from the same gain achieved over five years. Being eventually right about a business is not necessarily the same as having made a worthwhile investment. 

When patience becomes an alibi 

The case for patience also comes with an uncomfortable caveat: sometimes waiting is the easier decision. 

Selling a disappointing investment requires acknowledging that the original decision was wrong. Continuing to hold it preserves the possibility of a more favourable conclusion to the investment. Behavioural finance has a name for this – the disposition effect, the well-documented tendency to sell winners too early and hold losers too long. 

In an actively managed portfolio, every holding competes for capital. Each position needs a current justification based on its prospective earnings, valuation, financial position, management credibility and role within the broader portfolio. Waiting for a stock to recover may be understandable as a preference, but it is not much of an investment case. 

Moving on from a losing investment is difficult, but investors need to remain pragmatic and decisive when better options arise or when the original thesis fails to play out. Continual reassessment of the portfolio is essential to ensure that owning each position at the current price is justified.  

Nor need a business deteriorate before selling becomes sensible. A good company can become too expensive, an individual holding can become too large, or another opportunity can offer a more attractive return for the risk involved. A good company is not always a good investment at any price, and a preference for a low-turnover portfolio should not stand in the way of those judgements.  

Waiting to buy is not waiting for certainty 

Patience also matters before an investment is made. 

Holding off because the price leaves too little room for disappointment is reasonable and disciplined. However holding off until every uncertainty has disappeared is not, as by the time uncertainty has cleared, the opportunity has usually been priced in. 

A business need not be free of risk to be attractive. The question is whether the price offers sufficient compensation for that risk, within the investor’s broader objectives and constraints. 

There is an opportunity cost to waiting, just as there is to acting. Cash preserves flexibility, but it also forgoes whatever returns suitable investments might have earned. An existing holding may remain acceptable while another becomes materially more attractive. 

This does not mean every new idea deserves to displace an old one. Switching costs, uncertainty and portfolio balance all matter. A decision to retain a holding, defer a purchase or reject an investment should face the same scrutiny as a decision to buy or sell. 

Patience is useful when it prevents a poor decision. It becomes costly when careful judgement slides into hesitation. In small caps, where a single result or contract win can re-rate a share price quickly, the investor still searching for more comfort may find the opportunity has already gone. Thorough analysis should lead to a decision, not substitute for one. 

Give the decision to wait a reason 

A short decision note can help distinguish considered patience from drift. It need not be overly complex. Four questions provide a useful starting point: 

• What am I waiting for? A more attractive price, a business milestone or information that could materially change the assessment? 
• What would change my mind? Which developments would justify buying, reducing or selling, and when should the relevant evidence become available? 
• Does the prospective return justify the wait? Consider the current price, likely timeframe, risks and credible alternatives – not just the original investment case. 
• What is prompting the urge to act? A change in facts, valuation or portfolio needs, or simply discomfort with the lack of movement? 

The purpose is to make sure every position – including the decision to do nothing – has a clear, current justification. 

That explanation should always be revisited as new evidence arrives. A decision to hold today is not a promise to hold indefinitely. Equally, a quiet period is not a problem that necessarily needs fixing. 

The objective is to make changes when the reasons justify them, and to resist making changes merely to demonstrate that attention is being paid. To make fewer decisions, but to make better ones. That includes saying no when the risks are poorly rewarded, giving a sound investment time, and changing course when the evidence requires it. Patience is valuable when it serves that judgement – not when it substitutes for it.

Disclaimer: This article is prepared by Daniel Seeney. It is for educational purposes only. While all reasonable care has been taken by the author in the preparation of this information, the author and InvestmentMarkets (Aust) Pty. Ltd. as publisher take no responsibility for any actions taken based on information contained herein or for any errors or omissions within it. Interested parties should seek independent professional advice prior to acting on any information presented. Please note past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.