Macro Articles

Throughout 2022, investors were reminded by a number of market experts that most commodities were in chronic undersupply. “Buy the chemical table”, was the advice given by more than one strategist who believed we were at the start of a new commodities supercycle.

Most of the world’s great investors are experts at using market sentiment to their advantage. “It is wise for investors to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffet Whilst it’s tempting for investors to be confident they understand market sentiment based upon market volatility and direction, there’s a simpler, more accurate, and often over-looked way to gauge market sentiment.

Economic forecasts are rarely accurate. Any Federal Treasurer will tell you that. Just four years ago, then-Treasurer Josh Frydenberg forecast a surplus of $7.1 billion for 2019/20. After paying for the unexpected impacts of bushfires and the Covid crisis, that predicted surplus turned into an $85 billion deficit.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton was a clear favourite to become the 45th President of the United States. Most pundits were amazed that her Republican rival, Donald Trump, had progressed this far in the contest. He wasn’t considered a serious contender. We all know the outcome.

If you’re reading this and you’ve already reached the age of 50, then you know a bit about inflation. You’ll remember the 1980s, when inflation peaked at 11.35 per cent, way ahead of wages growth. It took years to bring those spiralling price increases under control.

The current economic environment remains uncertain. Has enough (or too much) been done by the RBA to curb inflation? How long will it take to find out? Will the unemploy- ment rate rises before inflation is controlled? Could global events swamp the best inten- tions of Australia’s central bank once again? And, are there opportunities for investors in the property sector right now?

So far, 2023 hasn’t been a happy new year for workers in technology. Actually, the latter part of 2022 wasn’t too great either. As both interest rates and inflation began their upwards march, the global tech giants started trimming the size of their workforce.

Some years ago, when the Aussie Dollar was trading at $0.88, a number of leading economists were asked for their twelve-month forecasts. One confidently said our dollar would reach parity with the US dollar within a year. Instead, the AUD finished the year 34 per cent down at $0.58. Making economic predictions is fraught with peril. Economics is more art than science, and a modern economy has many moving parts that don’t always behave rationally. Still, looking ahead in 2023, there are some things we can reasonably expect.

This article discusses the effect of rising inflation and its impact on the Australian economy. It includes a list of ways to prepare yourself for a rise in inflation.

Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has handed down the 2022-23 Federal Budget, the Government’s last before the Federal Election. This article outlines the key measures contained in the Budget including cost of living relief, infrastructure spending, and tax deductions for business.

Our latest quarterly update covers the rebounding domestic economy, strong government spending, the war in Ukraine, higher commodity prices and strong employment growth.