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By now, most of us have realised that the US-Israel-Iran war will have longer-term consequences beyond recent volatility. It’s accelerating a structural shift in global markets defined by tighter energy supply, more persistent inflation, and the fragmentation of trade and capital flows.

Buckle up. Markets are undergoing a structural shift. The era of easy gains driven by liquidity and exposure to US big tech appears to be fading. In its place is emerging a more selective environment defined by rising geopolitical risk, elevated inflationary pressures, and widening dispersion between companies, sectors, and asset classes.

2026 is emerging as a year when it pays to understand what’s happening beneath the surface of markets. Whilst global equity markets have been weaker, there have been a number of consequential sectoral shifts behind the index headlines, some of which have insulated savvy investors from the broader weakness. Moreover, some of these shifts may be here to stay, determining the market outlook for the full year and beyond.