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The Bigger Picture - May 2026

April confirmed what markets had begun to suspect: the global macro backdrop has changed. Higher geopolitical risk is now structurally entrenched. Markets have quickly adjusted to this unfortunate new reality across all asset classes. Geopolitical risk has reasserted itself as a primary driver of energy prices, inflation expectations, and capital flows. Investors still anchored to the old world of low inflation, cheap money, and frictionless globalisation risk being structurally mispositioned.

Investor EducationMacroInvestment Themes
3 May 2026
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

The Bigger Picture - May 2026

April confirmed what markets had begun to suspect: the global macro backdrop has changed. Higher geopolitical risk is now structurally entrenched. Markets have quickly adjusted to this unfortunate new reality across all asset classes. Geopolitical risk has reasserted itself as a primary driver of energy prices, inflation expectations, and capital flows. Investors still anchored to the old world of low inflation, cheap money, and frictionless globalisation risk being structurally mispositioned.

Investor EducationMacroInvestment Themes
3 May 2026
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

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The inverted yield dilemma

You may have heard the classic joke about economists… Economists were created to make weather forecasters and astrologers feel better about the accuracy of their predictions. US economists have certainly lived up to this stereotype of late. There’s rarely been a period when economists have been more wrong-footed by a strengthening economy.

Investor EducationMacroAsset Allocation
17 Aug 2023
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

Perfect storm hits retail

If you’ve been following the financial news closely, you've probably heard analysts warn of the risks facing consumer discretionary stocks due to the looming retail slump. Those risks are now manifesting as Australia is in the midst of a consumer recession with three consecutive quarters of declining retail turnover. So the post-covid retail honeymoon is over—and consumers are opting for value-driven choices as the tailwinds provided by the excess savings accumulated during Covid wane.

Retail, Consumer Products & FoodMacroInvestor Education
10 Aug 2023
 · Ankita Rai
 · 5 MIN READ

Dividend investors could be shouting more drinks

The world of yield investing has been through a dramatic transformation in recent months as central bankers have raised rates at an unusually aggressive pace. Equity and bond markets have fast adapted to this new world order, but what happens if the current yield split between equities and bonds doesn’t apportion risk fairly?

SharesMacroAsset Allocation
28 July 2023
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

Time to make higher interest rates your friend

If you follow the financial news closely, you may be tired of hearing about the RBA’s incessant rate rising and the resulting tales of woe around the country. It sometimes feels like interest rates are monopolising the airwaves at the expense of everything else. But what if hearing the words, “The RBA raises rates yet again,” were to inspire joy in your world (or at least indifference) rather than dread?

Investor EducationMacro
7 July 2023
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

What the bull-bear spread is telling us

Most of the world’s great investors are experts at using market sentiment to their advantage. “It is wise for investors to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffet Whilst it’s tempting for investors to be confident they understand market sentiment based upon market volatility and direction, there’s a simpler, more accurate, and often over-looked way to gauge market sentiment.

Investor EducationMacro
26 May 2023
 · 
 · 3 MIN READ

Risky Business – the 2023 Federal Budget

Economic forecasts are rarely accurate. Any Federal Treasurer will tell you that. Just four years ago, then-Treasurer Josh Frydenberg forecast a surplus of $7.1 billion for 2019/20. After paying for the unexpected impacts of bushfires and the Covid crisis, that predicted surplus turned into an $85 billion deficit.

MacroInvestor Education
12 May 2023
 · 
 · 6 MIN READ

Trump in 2024 - What does it mean for markets?

In 2016, Hillary Clinton was a clear favourite to become the 45th President of the United States. Most pundits were amazed that her Republican rival, Donald Trump, had progressed this far in the contest. He wasn’t considered a serious contender. We all know the outcome.

MacroInvestor Education
2 May 2023
 · 
 · 4 MIN READ

Payton Capital Quarterly Economic Outlook

The current economic environment remains uncertain. Has enough (or too much) been done by the RBA to curb inflation? How long will it take to find out? Will the unemploy- ment rate rises before inflation is controlled? Could global events swamp the best inten- tions of Australia’s central bank once again? And, are there opportunities for investors in the property sector right now?

Expert PerspectivesMacro
31 Mar 2023
 · Payton Capital
 · 11 MIN READ

Inflation - It could be worse than you think

If you’re reading this and you’ve already reached the age of 50, then you know a bit about inflation. You’ll remember the 1980s, when inflation peaked at 11.35 per cent, way ahead of wages growth. It took years to bring those spiralling price increases under control.

MacroInvestor Education
31 Mar 2023
 · 
 · 4 MIN READ

The Canary in the Coal Mine

So far, 2023 hasn’t been a happy new year for workers in technology. Actually, the latter part of 2022 wasn’t too great either. As both interest rates and inflation began their upwards march, the global tech giants started trimming the size of their workforce.

MacroInvestor Education
24 Mar 2023
 · 
 · 5 MIN READ

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