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How many central bankers does it take to change a light bulb?

You may have heard the joke about central bankers … how many central bankers does it take to change a light bulb? None. If the light bulb needed changing the market would have done it already. It won’t surprise you to hear not many central bankers find this joke funny. But what if the light bulb that needed changing was persistent inflation, and what if the market believes it can relax as the RBA has already changed that light bulb?

MacroAsset AllocationInvestor Education
13 Mar 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 7 MIN READ

Will the Fed throw kerosene onto the fire?

With global equity markets celebrating the prospect of impending rate cuts by the Fed, some investors have been wrong-footed by the extent of the recent enthusiasm, particularly in US tech stocks. If you’re underinvested and are considering joining the equity party in earnest, it’s worthwhile digging into the market’s Fed fund rate expectations for an understanding of whether market expectations are on point, or not. This situation may well dictate global and Australian equity market performance in the coming months.

MacroInvestor EducationShares
7 Mar 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

Don’t ignore the liquidity feedback loop

With the US economy and stock market continuing to drive global markets, Aussie investors increasingly need to understand what’s driving American fund flows. Spoiler alert: it’s not just corporate earnings. There are liquidity drivers at play in the US that are creating remarkably strong feedback loops with stock valuations and the broader economy. Understanding how these liquidity feedback loops work may well provide clues as to what’s coming next for global equity markets, including the ASX…

Investor EducationMacroShares
22 Feb 2024
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

The number economists are most likely to be wrong about in 2024

In the words of John Kenneth Galbraith, ‘We have two classes of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know.’ You’d be forgiven for believing we are already in the midst of a recession given the amount of bearish economic commentary in recent months. However, at least in nominal terms, the Australian and global economies have continued to grow despite sharply higher interest rates—and it is nominal growth that matters most to equity markets. With the end of the year fast approaching, it’s timely to consider the 2024 economic outlook—and one particular economic forecast that stands out as vulnerable to being wrong as we approach the new year…

MacroInvestor Education
23 Nov 2023
 · Simon Turner
 · 6 MIN READ

Where the inflation monster does most of its work

The recent Australian Consumer Sentiment Snapshot reveals Aussie consumers have one particular economic factor front of mind… inflation. The inflation monster is impacting upon consumers’ disposable incomes, and more importantly it’s causing havoc in consumers’ minds where it’s doing most of its insidious work. It’s this growing awareness and fear of inflation which suggests we may be on track for inflation to trend higher than markets (and central bankers) currently believe. If that is indeed the case, the investment implications are significant…

MacroInvestor EducationAsset Allocation
9 Nov 2023
 · Simon Turner
 · 8 MIN READ

China's economic slump casts a shadow over ASX

The economic news from China is getting worse. From deflation to falling exports, high unemployment, and a debt-laden property sector, the global economic powerhouse is facing significant challenges. Clearly, these growing economic challenges are bad news for the many ASX-listed stocks exposed to China.

MacroShares
6 Sept 2023
 · Ankita Rai
 · 5 MIN READ

The inverted yield dilemma

You may have heard the classic joke about economists… Economists were created to make weather forecasters and astrologers feel better about the accuracy of their predictions. US economists have certainly lived up to this stereotype of late. There’s rarely been a period when economists have been more wrong-footed by a strengthening economy.

Investor EducationMacroAsset Allocation
17 Aug 2023
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

Perfect storm hits retail

If you’ve been following the financial news closely, you've probably heard analysts warn of the risks facing consumer discretionary stocks due to the looming retail slump. Those risks are now manifesting as Australia is in the midst of a consumer recession with three consecutive quarters of declining retail turnover. So the post-covid retail honeymoon is over—and consumers are opting for value-driven choices as the tailwinds provided by the excess savings accumulated during Covid wane.

Retail, Consumer Products & FoodMacroInvestor Education
10 Aug 2023
 · Ankita Rai
 · 5 MIN READ

Dividend investors could be shouting more drinks

The world of yield investing has been through a dramatic transformation in recent months as central bankers have raised rates at an unusually aggressive pace. Equity and bond markets have fast adapted to this new world order, but what happens if the current yield split between equities and bonds doesn’t apportion risk fairly?

SharesMacroAsset Allocation
28 July 2023
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

Time to make higher interest rates your friend

If you follow the financial news closely, you may be tired of hearing about the RBA’s incessant rate rising and the resulting tales of woe around the country. It sometimes feels like interest rates are monopolising the airwaves at the expense of everything else. But what if hearing the words, “The RBA raises rates yet again,” were to inspire joy in your world (or at least indifference) rather than dread?

Investor EducationMacro
7 July 2023
 · Simon Turner
 · 5 MIN READ

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