Investment Articles & Insights

Risk is a complex subject. Whilst there are many official definitions, most successful investors tend to define risk as what you don’t see coming—the unknown unknowns. Understanding risk in these terms may be the key to recognising the emergence of major risks faster, and hence avoiding the more significant financial pain that investment mistakes tend to lead to. Losing less on your mistakes may well be the key to improving your investment returns…

The buy now, pay later sector finds itself at the centre of a perfect storm, propelled by robust Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales and the deferred implementation of BNPL laws.  Services such as Affirm, Afterpay-owner Block, and Klarna played a pivotal role, facilitating a substantial $US7.3 billion in consumer spending during the recent five-day sale event in the US. Cyber Monday alone witnessed a remarkable 43% increase in BNPL purchases compared to the previous year, according to Adobe data.

In recent years, shorting stocks has become a common strategy for professional and individual investors alike, so there’s a growing population of investors on the lookout for stocks they believe will fall in value.

In the words of John Kenneth Galbraith, ‘We have two classes of forecasters: those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know.’ You’d be forgiven for believing we are already in the midst of a recession given the amount of bearish economic commentary in recent months. However, at least in nominal terms, the Australian and global economies have continued to grow despite sharply higher interest rates—and it is nominal growth that matters most to equity markets. With the end of the year fast approaching, it’s timely to consider the 2024 economic outlook—and one particular economic forecast that stands out as vulnerable to being wrong as we approach the new year…